50% of the new vehicles that will circulate in the United States in 2040 will be autonomous, so they will represent 35% of the automobile fleet in that country, according to a study prepared by the rating firm Standard & Poor's (S&P) Global Ratings.
According to S&P, between 2020 and 2030 the market will grow and be dominated by semi-autonomous vehicles (between levels 1 and 3 of autonomy) that will require the presence of a driver at the wheel; although the rating firm believes it "probable" that in 2023 there are some fully autonomous level 4.
Likewise, S&P anticipates that by 2030 there will be a faster implementation of the autonomous vehicle in limited-range taxis operated by transnational companies, as well as some fully autonomous vehicles of 5 level, which would mean an increase in traffic and congestion, according to the rating firm.
Esto "The demand for parking will increase", which will imply a complexity for the planning of the infrastructures due to the fact that urban congestion will surpass traditional traffic, the firm points out.
For S&P the integration of fully autonomous level 5 vehicles for commercial use (parcel delivery and long-distance transport) "It will be further expanded from 2030", while foreseeing a “greater growth” on the part of mobility-as-a-service companies.
"As infrastructure develops and market penetration expands, autonomous vehicles will spread from metropolitan areas to densely populated suburbs and rural regions," S&P has pointed out.
Finally, advances in V2V technology (communication between cars) and V2I (car connected to the infrastructure) will allow 'platooning (vehicles will follow each other in an automated way)', which will generate an increase in road capacity in some corridors.